Source: DAFF/ABARES National Crop Report No. 215 September 2025

Above average national winter crop production

Australian winter crop production is forecast to increase by 2% to 62 million tonnes in 2025–26 (Figure 1). This is 26% above the 10-year average to 2024–25 and if realised, would be the third highest on record. This forecast reflects expected improvements in production in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria and above average production in northern New South Wales and Queensland. Despite a very dry and sporadic start to the winter cropping season in South Australia and Victoria, improved seasonal conditions throughout winter have boosted production prospects across Australia’s major winter cropping regions.

• After an unfavourable start to the winter cropping season in South Australia, western Victoria and southern New South Wales many crops were dry sown with limited soil moisture. Above average July rainfall in South Australia and Victoria, combined with follow up rainfall in August has provided enough moisture for crop emergence and establishment, and although 3-4 weeks late, yield potential is positive.
• Rainfall in southern New South Wales has not been as favourable with crops receiving just enough to maintain growth. Further rainfall will be crucial for current yield potential to be realised.
• By contrast, conditions have been favourable in Western Australia, Queensland, and northern New South Wales, reflecting timely rainfall that has maintained soil moisture profiles. These conditions have placed crops in an excellent position heading into spring.

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (October to December), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 25 September 2025, there is a 60% to 80%+ chance that rainfall will be above average across cropping regions in Queensland and Southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Meanwhile, cropping regions in Western Australia have a lower chance of receiving above average rainfall (between 35% and 50%), although this is needed to dry out some wetter areas in the south. This generally favourable spring rainfall outlook, if realised, is expected to support crop development and boost yield potential.

National winter crop production has been revised up 12% compared to the June 2025 Australian crop report. This reflects better than expected conditions in most cropping regions with upwards revisions for all major winter crops from the June forecast. 

• Wheat production is forecast to fall by 1% to 33.8 million tonnes in 2025–26, 22% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.
• Barley production is forecast to increase by 10% to 14.6 million tonnes in 2025–26, 23% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.
• Canola production is forecast to increase by 1% to 6.4 million tonnes in 2025–26, 34% above the 10- year average to 2024–25.
• Lentil production is forecast to increase by 34% to a record 1.7 million tonnes in 2025–26, 95% above the 10-year average to 2024–25. This expansion reflects a record area planted.
• Chickpea production is forecast to fall by 7% to 2.1 million tonnes in 2025–26, with the expansion in area planted expected to be offset by lower yields. 

Figure 1 Australian winter crop production, 2025–26

Good soil moisture availability and positive rainfall outlook for summer crops

Area planted to summer crops in 2025–26 is forecast to remain above average at 1.3 million hectares. This is supported by average to above average soil moisture levels in late winter and the favourable spring rainfall outlook across key summer cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland. Summer crop production is forecast to be down 12% from 2024–25 levels at 4.5 million tonnes but remain 21% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.

Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 9% to 2.4 million tonnes in 2025–26. Area planted to sorghum is forecast to increase by 3% to 602 thousand hectares, 16% above the 10-year average to 2024–25, reflecting expected favourable conditions during the planting window. At this early stage, yields are not forecast to be at last year’s well above average to record high levels.

Production of cotton lint is forecast to fall by 16% to 1 million tonnes in 2025–26, reflecting a reduction in planted area and lower yields. Area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 11% to 461 thousand hectares in 2025–26, largely reflecting a fall in New South Wales due to decreased availability of irrigation water and elevated water prices.

Rice production is forecast to fall by 36% to just over 300 thousand tonnes in 2025–26, driven by a 30% decrease in the area planted. Ongoing dry conditions have resulted in a decline in water availability across the Murray-Darling basin and an increase in the price of irrigation water, which is expected to constrain the area planted to rice.

Figure 2 Australian summer crop production, 2025–26

Source: ABARES